All other material, including data produced by third parties and made available by Our World in Data, is subject to the license terms from the original third-party authors. list-style-type: lower-latin; -o-box-shadow: 0 10px 20px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19), 0 6px 6px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.23); } During the 20th century, the global population saw its greatest increase in known history, rising from about 1.6 billion in 1900 to over 6 billion in 2000[102] as the whole world entered the early phases of what has come to be called the Demographic Transition. Through shades of blue and green the same visualization shows the population structure over the last decades up to 2018. Global population growth is determined by the number of births and deaths. - Stage 3: Population growth slows down. : box, cylinder ). min-height: 30px; .observances { @media only screen and (min-width: 992px) { } color:#ffffff; Just as expected by demographers, the world as a whole is experiencing the closing of a massive demographic transition. The US Census Bureau's world population clock estimated that the global population as of September 2022 was 7,922,312,800 people and was expected to reach 8 billion by mid-November of 2022. } Age Structure What is the age profile of populations around the world? [3] One of the most basic and milestone models of population growth was the logistic model of population growth formulated by Pierre Franois Verhulst in 1838. Migration flows are not counted. All people on 1 page. Europe's 747 million people make up 10% of the world's population as of 2020, while the Latin American and Caribbean regions are home to around 653 million (8%). In this entry we are focusing mostly on the UNs medium variant projections. Child mortality rate vs population growth, Crude death rate: the share of the population that dies per year, Estimated completeness of death reporting, Fertility rate: children per woman by world region, including the UN projections, Global and regional population estimates, US Census Bureau vs. UN, Historical world population: comparison of different sources, Population by age group, including UN projections, Population growth rate by level of development, Population growth rate vs child mortality rate, Population growth rate with and without migration, Size of young, working age and elderly populations, Size of young, working-age and elderly populations, The demographic transition: Decline of the death rate followed by a decline of the birth rate, World population by region, including UN projections. a.social-icon-apple::after { Crucial to population estimates are birth and mortality rates: this census data, therefore, relies on birth registration and death reporting. Projections as far back as 1950 were remarkably close to the later estimates. This is not to say that feeding and supporting a still-rising world population will be easy, but we are certainly on the way to a new balance where its not high mortality keeping population growth in check, but low fertility rates. View the entire current world population on a single page, showing every single person one by one, increasing in real time. Sergei P. Kapitza, "The phenomenological theory of world population growth", UN Department of Economics and Social Affairs, List of countries and dependencies by population, List of countries and dependencies by population density, Learn how and when to remove this template message, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, List of sovereign states and dependencies by total fertility rate, List of countries by population growth rate, List of countries by past and projected future population, "World population estimates and UN projection", "World Population Prospects - Population Division - United Nations", "World Population to Hit Milestone With Birth of 7 Billionth Person", "World Population Prospects 2019, Population Growth Rate file, estimates tab", "World Population Prospects 2019, Population Growth Rate file, medium variant tab", "Long Slide Looms for World Population, With Sweeping Ramifications", "World Population Prospects 2019, Births file", "World Population Prospects 2019, Deaths file", "Population estimates of the Roman Empire", "Plague, Plague Information, Black Death Facts, News, Photos", "History of Europe Demographic and agricultural growth", "Historical Estimates of World Population", "Essai sur l'volution du nombre des hommes", "Qing China's Internal Crisis: Land Shortage, Famine, Rural Poverty", "Super-Sized Cassava Plants May Help Fight Hunger in Africa", "U.S. News & World Report: How many people were here before Columbus? World Population Prospects 2022 is the twenty-seventh edition of the official United Nations population estimates and projections. left: 5%; color: #ffffff !important; This visualization provides an additional perspective on population growth: the number of years it took to add one billion to the global population. Population growth is still fast: every year, 140 million are born, and 58 million die. The global average fertility rate was 5 children per woman until the end of the 1960s and has more than halved since then. .back-button { What happens in Africa now and in the coming decades will determine what size and structure the global population will have at the end of the century.21. One of the main implications of using the cohort-component method is that it sometimes leads to marked inconsistencies with official country statistics. text-align: right; padding: 1rem; See for example Kremer (1993) Population growth and technological change: one million BC to 1990. As the size of the population rather than the size of the territory is shown in this map you can see some big differences when you compare it to the standard geographical map were most familiar with. The data from the HYDE project is in turn the basis for the population series published by the Clio-Infra project. If you now compare the base of the pyramid in 2018 with the projection for 2100 you see that the coming decades will not resemble the past: According to the projections there will be fewer children bornat the end of this century than today. As health is rapidly improving around the world, life expectancy is also increasing rapidly. In these optimistic scenarios, the global population is therefore significantly smaller at the end of the century, with smaller cohorts of school-age children throughout this period. In past decades UN demographers have been consistently too pessimistic in their projections of the global fertility rates as we show in our assessment of the past UN projections. Yes, I expect new generations to contribute, but for now, it is upon us to provide for them. It is the moment that Hans Rosling famously called peak child and it is pre-emptive of the moment in history when the population stops increasing. } By 2060 the world population is projected to reach 9.8 billion under the Constant Enrollment Rates (CER) scenario, which is pessimistic about improvements in global education. This entry can be cited as: All visualizations, data, and code produced by Our World in Data are completely open access under the Creative Commons BY license. For more information on the population dividend see: http://www.unfpa.org/demographic-dividend and the work of David E. Bloom. The standard methodology used for producing population estimates relies on the so-called cohort model. Haub also stated that "life expectancy at birth probably averaged only about ten years for most of human history",[146] which is not to be mistaken for the life expectancy after reaching adulthood. At the time of writing, this source was online at www.sage.wisc.edu/atlas/maps. margin: 1em 0 0.5em 0; box-shadow: inset 0 1px 1px rgba(0,0,0,0.05); Hans Rosling explained it better than anyone, with the help of toilet rolls. [11] The total number of deaths is currently 57 million/year and is projected to grow steadily to 121 million/year by 2100. ", "Victorian Medicine From Fluke to Theory", "Vladimir Putin vows to reverse Russian population decline", "Russia's Population Decline Said To Have 'Stopped', "Reintegrating India with the World Economy", "The World Factbook Central Intelligence Agency", "From Traitors to Heroes: 100 Years of Mexican Migration Policies", "Population and Housing Census: Mexico 2010", "U.S. Census Bureau World POPClock Projection", "Population seven billion: UN sets out challenges", "7 billion people is a 'serious challenge", "World Population Prospects 2019, Total Population - Both Sexes file, Medium Variant tab", "World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision Frequently Asked Questions", "World population to reach 8 billion this year, as growth rate slows", "World Health Statistics 2016: Monitoring health for the SDGs Annex B: tables of health statistics by country, WHO region and globally", "General debate on national experience in population matters: adolescents and youth", "Global weight gain more damaging than rising numbers", "Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population) | Data". text-align: center !important; } Here we see that the top five most populous countries are: For several centuries, China has been the worlds most populous country. We are on the way to a new balance. text-decoration: underline !important; Its expected that sources will differ in their projections for future populations: although the UN projections to date have been remarkably accurate, they are based on a number of assumptions regarding the change in fertility, mortality and migration over time. Until the late 18th century, few governments had ever performed an accurate census. [7][68] However, this is only one of many estimates published by the UN; in 2009, UN population projections for 2050 ranged between around 8 billion and 10.5 billion. Constant Enrollment Rates (CER): This is another pessimistic scenario. margin-right: 0.3em; letter-spacing: normal; In 1999 it reached 6 billion people. Population growth is still fast: every year, 140 million are born, and 58 million die. As we see here, there is a significant fall in the population growth rate, particularly in the second half of the 21st century. It is possible to switch this chart to any other country or world region in the world. 2011 Share. .text-lead-lg { The world population will reach a size that, compared to humanitys history, will be extraordinary; if the UN projections are accurate (they have a good track record), the world population will have increased more than 10-fold over the span of 250 years. To store the results, we'll use a TimeSeries object: color:#ffffff; In red, you see the annual population growth rate (that is, the percentage change in population per year) of the global population. The demographers expect the African population to stay well below 3 billion, with population growth almost coming to a halt at the end of this century. bottom: 100px; Simulations suggest that population may soon peak or may have already peaked. } background-color: #009edb; The points at which it reached three and four billion were not officially noted, but the International Database of the United States Census Bureau placed them in July 1959 and April 1974 respectively. margin-bottom: 2rem; margin-bottom: 35px; [30] New crops that were brought to Asia and Europe from the Americas by Portuguese and Spanish colonists in the 16th century are believed to have contributed to population growth. Modeling of dynamic interactions in nature can provide a manageable way of understanding how numbers change over time or in relation to each other. However, after 2024, it is unlikely that there will be another doubling of the global population in the 21st century. A mind-boggling change: the world population today is 1,860 times the size of what it was 12,000 ago when the world population was around 4 million half of the current population of London. /* ********* some padding for side bar items ********** */ } } In the darkest blue, you see the pyramid that represents the structure of the world population in 1950. The United Nations and the US Census Bureau both give different estimates according to the UN, the world population reached seven billion in late 2011,[111] while the USCB asserted that this occurred in March 2012. } } In. Every few years the United Nations publishes its latest population statistics, covering historical and current estimates, and future projections. The most commonly cited source is McEvedy and Jones (1978). Most of the population is located in the center and south. Estimates of population in recent history and projections, Compilations of census data and other sources, by Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina and Lucas Rods-Guirao. } The population history of England 1541-1871. According to the UN projections, the two drivers will cancel each other out so that the number of births will stay close to the current level for many decades. Shown as the solid line is the latest 2022 Revision, which we can consider to be the actual population size up to 2021. Africa too will reach a fertility rate below 2 by the 2070s under the medium assumptions you can add the projections for Africa by clicking the option add projection below the chart. In fact, population growth would have been negative (i.e. As a result, the number of births will stay high even as the number of births per woman is falling. Population models are used to determine maximum harvest for agriculturists, to understand the dynamics of biological invasions, and for environmental conservation. Such estimates can only be rough approximations, as even modern population estimates are subject to uncertainty of around 3% to 5%. .node-sidebar-item-body ul { margin-top: 1.0501050105rem; Jean-Nol Biraben (1980), "An Essay Concerning Mankind's Evolution". http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/11189/1/XO-14-031.pdf, Wolfgang Lutz, William P. Butz, and Samir KC Editors Executive Summary: World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Throughout the 1960s, the world's population was growing at a rate of about 2% per year. font-size: 3rem; Nonetheless, the surprising accuracy of historical projections should give us confidence that although imperfect, UN population projections have usually turned out to be very close to the truth. .international-items { border-bottom: none; The most discussed estimates of world population from the last century are those from the UN Population Division. The striking change between now and 2100 is the expected growth in the African population. [47], Population growth in the Western world became more rapid after the introduction of vaccination and other improvements in medicine and sanitation. Now let us compare this with the projection of the world population by world region according to the medium projection of WC-IIASA the SSP2 scenario with the GET assumption on global educational improvements. .heading-center-underline { Today its population stands at around 4.7 billion. From now on is not a widening of the base, but a fill up of the population above the base: the number of children will barely increase and then start to decline, but the number of people of working age and old age will increase very substantially. [108] Adrian Raftery, a University of Washington professor of statistics and of sociology, states that "theres a 70 percent probability the world population will not stabilize this century. The demographic transition is a sequence of five stages: If fertility fell in lockstep with mortality we would not have seen an increase in the population at all. float: right !important; } Licenses: All visualizations, data, and articles produced by Our World in Data are open access under the Creative Commons BY license. font-size: 2rem; population, in human biology, the whole number of inhabitants occupying an area (such as a country or the world) and continually being modified by increases (births and immigrations) and losses (deaths and emigrations). /* ***** padding and text copy-specific styles ***** */ In the map, we see the estimated population of each country today. /* This article was first published in 2014. That's thanks to a fertility rate of 4.3 per woman. In the chart here we see historic and projected population by country, spanning from 10,000 BCE through to 2100. This is what demographers refer to as population momentum and it explains why the number of children in the world will not decline as rapidly as the fertility rate. It is a beautifully simple model that describes the observed pattern in countries around the world and is one of the great insights of demography.9. padding: 1.5rem 0; Oxford University Press. The model of demographic transition has five stages, which we explain in the next chart. margin: auto 0; padding: 10px; The development will put enormous pressure on Earth's resources and we'll need to find more sustainable ways of living. Worldwide, population growth is slowingyou can press the play arrow at the bottom of the chart to see the change over time. The chart shows the birth and death rates in England and Wales over the span of nearly 500 years. Small countries with a high population density increase in size in this cartogram relative to the world maps we are used to look at Bangladesh, Taiwan, or the Netherlands. .international-items { margin-left: 25% !important; In 1975, Sebastian von Hoerner proposed a formula for population growth which represented hyperbolic growth with an infinite population in 2025. In the section above we looked at the absolute change in the global population over time. Population, which had sort of fallen off the worlds agenda, remains a very important issue. border-top: #00a1d9 solid 3px; This implies that on average the population grew very slowly over this long time from 10,000 BCE to 1700 (by 0.04% annually). In demographics, the term world population is often used to refer to the total number of humans currently living, and was estimated to have exceeded 7.9 billion as of September 2022. [35], The pre-Columbian population of the Americas is uncertain; historian David Henige called it "the most unanswerable question in the world. By that time, the UN projects, fast global population growth will come to an end. The previous section looked at the growth rate. Life expectancy, which measures the age of death, has doubled in every region in the world as we show here. Help us do this work by making a donation. Online here. Empirical evidence for the demographic transition, How development affects population growth. margin-top: 5rem; This means that enrollment rates are declining when the population size increases. These changes will bring new opportunities and challenges. Nature, 412(6846), 543545. Since 1975, the global population has grown by one billion about every 12 years. In 1950 there were 2.5 billion people on the planet. Oxford University Press. text-align: left; Nigeria: 225,082,083 text-align: center; } } The coming acceleration of global population ageing. It is hard to know the population dynamics beyond 2100. For Africa the UN projects an increase from around 0.6 billion under-15-year-olds today to a peak of around 0.8 billion in the 2090s when the number of children at school age is projected to start to decline. .back-to-toplink a { .observance-item-title a { A larger increase in the educational attainment in the short-run will mean that the size of cohorts that need investments in the long-run will be much smaller: The difference between no further improvements in the educational enrollment (CER scenario) and a continuation of the successful last decades will mean that the global population of under-15-year-olds will be half a billion smaller at the end of the century. One of the big lessons from the demographic history of countries is that population explosions are temporary. 1 Margaret Mead; "World Population: World Responsibility," Science, Vol. : table, coke_can ). [48] Improved material conditions led to the population of Britain increasing from 10 million to 40 million in the 19th century. In 1921 Pearl invited physicist Alfred J. Lotka to assist him in his lab. .blue-well p, .blue-well ol, .blue-well ul, .blue-well li, .blue-well a, .blue-well a:hover, .blue-well a:active { Before 1800 more than 20% of Swedish babies died before they reached their first birthday, and of those who survived, another 20% died before their 10th birthday (see Croix, Lindh, and Malmberg (2009), Demographic change and economic growth in Sweden: 17502050. Represented in this way the population structure of societies with high mortality rates resembled a pyramid this is how this famous type of visualization got its name. In these different scenarios education-specific fertility levels now also differ across scenarios, which means that the differences across scenarios are even larger than in the projections above where education-specific fertility levels were the same across the different scenarios. The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) predicts changing birth, death, and population growth rates as countries industrialize. We are on the way to a new balance. A mathematical model for world population growth over short intervals is given by P =. World population - is the total number of humans currently living in the World. All other material, including data produced by third parties and made available by Our World in Data, is subject to the license terms from the original third-party authors. [29] England's population reached an estimated 5.6 million in 1650, up from an estimated 2.6 million in 1500. In the new balance, it will be low fertility that keeps population changes small. In this chart we see the global population split by region. Haub (1995) estimates that around 40% of those who have ever lived did not survive beyond their first birthday. [28] In that year, the population of Western Han was recorded as 57,671,400 individuals in 12,366,470 households, decreasing to 47,566,772 individuals in 9,348,227 households by AD 146, towards the End of the Han dynasty. } font-weight: 700; } Population models can track the fragile species and work and curb the decline. Today, different countries straddle different stages of the model. [6] The growth rate declined to 1.1% between 2015 and 2020 and is projected to decline further in the course of the 21st century. ul.block-list li h4 a:before { .section1 { Pre-modern infant mortality rates are another critical factor for such an estimate; these rates are very difficult to estimate for ancient times due to a lack of accurate records. font-size: 2rem !important; border-radius: 10px; . font-weight: 600; When citing this entry, please also cite the underlying data sources. Research relies on a wide range of statistical analysis methods to process survey data and to describe and model demographic events and phenomena on the basis of that data. -moz-transition: all 0.25s ease-in-out; A major reason for this correlation is that the fertility rate is high where child mortality is high. All of our charts can be embedded in any site. [24] At the founding of the Ming dynasty in 1368, China's population was reported to be close to 60 million; toward the end of the dynasty in 1644, it may have approached 150 million.
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